Home > MLB > 40 Guys in 30 Days: Felix Doubront

40 Guys in 30 Days: Felix Doubront

How is Felix Doubront only 24 years old? It feels like he’s been around and terrible forever.

Felix Doubront
2012 stats: 134.2 IP, 136 K, 58 BB, 22 HR
5.21 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 3.92 xFIP; 1.5 fWAR, -0.6 bWAR
2013 contract status: Not yet eligible for arbitration

Part of the reason it feels like Doubront has been around forever is probably that he’s been in the Red Sox’ system since 2005. He never really stood out or broke out in a major way, but he slowly and steadily made his way through the system, earning big league callups in 2010 and ’11 before being named the #4 starter out of spring training this year.

The hype was that he had turned a corner, or maybe finally learned how to pitch, or some other nonsense that was supposed to justify running a crappy guy making the minimum out there instead of paying Edwin Jackson. To his credit, Doubront has shown an ability to strike out major league hitters this year. Unfortunately, that’s about all he’s done right.

If you believe that Felix has been undone by some bad luck on batted balls, and that in the future not as many of the fly balls he allows will leave the park, then you can look at Doubront’s 2012 season and say that he’s a pitcher with a very bright future ahead of him. I don’t really believe that, though. If anything I think his strikeout rate is likelier to regress.

If the Red Sox are serious about competing in 2013, they almost certainly need to replace Doubront in the rotation. At present, he would be the #4 starter behind Lester, Buchholz and Lackey; on a good team, he’d probably be closer to #7 or 8. I fully expect him to be in the opening day rotation once again.

Next time: A good player who is about to be paid like a superstar. Because those contracts always turn out great and never get sent to the Dodgers for lottery tickets.

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